1 Introduction

Mosquitoes are vectors for numerous diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, Zika, West Nile fever, and malaria, which pose significant public health challenges globally (Kolimenakis et al., 2021). The population dynamics of mosquitoes are influenced by a variety of factors, including climatic conditions, environmental changes, and human activities (Li et al., 2019). These dynamics are crucial for understanding the transmission patterns of mosquito-borne diseases and for developing effective control strategies (Brugueras et al., 2020).

Climate and environmental changes play a pivotal role in shaping the distribution and abundance of mosquito populations (Nosrat et al., 2021). Factors such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity directly affect mosquito life cycles, breeding sites, and the ability to transmit pathogens (Caldwell et al., 2021). For instance, temperature influences mosquito flight activity (Franklinos et al., 2019), host-seeking behavior, and the development of immature stages, while precipitation affects the availability of breeding sites (Reinhold et al., 2018). Understanding these influences is essential for predicting disease outbreaks and implementing timely interventions.

This study synthesizes current knowledge on the role of climate and environmental changes in mosquito population dynamics; focuses on identifying key climatic and environmental factors that influence mosquito distribution and disease transmission. By analyzing data from various regions and climatic zones, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of how these factors interact and contribute to the emergence and spread of mosquito-borne diseases. The ultimate goal is to inform public health strategies and improve disease control measures in the face of ongoing climate change.

2 Climate Change and Mosquito Populations

2.1 Temperature variations and their effects on mosquito lifecycles

Temperature is a critical factor influencing mosquito population dynamics and lifecycle traits. Various studies have demonstrated that temperature fluctuations can significantly impact the development, survival, and reproductive rates of mosquitoes (Liu et al., 2020). For instance, a study on Anopheles mosquitoes revealed that higher temperatures reduced larval sizes and decreased hatching and pupation times, while also decreasing adult longevity and fecundity (Brugueras rt al., 2020). Similarly, research on Culex mosquitoes indicated that temperature increases accelerated mosquito development but also increased mortality rates, particularly at temperatures above 24 °C (Kolimenakis et al., 2021). These findings underscore the complex and species-specific responses of mosquitoes to temperature changes, which can ultimately affect their capacity to transmit diseases.

2.2 Changes in precipitation patterns and mosquito habitats

Precipitation patterns play a crucial role in shaping mosquito habitats and population dynamics (Liu et al., 2020). Rainfall provides breeding sites for mosquitoes, and changes in precipitation can either enhance or limit mosquito proliferation. A study on Culex quinquefasciatus demonstrated that there is an optimal number of rainy days that maximizes mosquito abundance, while increased daily rainfall variability can lead to higher mosquito populations even with low mean monthly precipitation (Caldwell et al., 2021). Additionally, research conducted in urban parks in São Paulo found that both temperature and accumulated rainfall were significant predictors of mosquito abundance, with different species showing varying levels of sensitivity to these climatic variables (Reinhold et al., 2020). These studies highlight the importance of understanding local precipitation patterns to predict mosquito population dynamics and implement effective control strategies (Jones et al., 2019).

2.3 Extreme weather events and their impact on mosquito distribution

Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heatwaves, can profoundly influence mosquito distribution and disease transmission dynamics. For example, an investigation into the effects of an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought event in Malaysia found that such extreme conditions could alter mosquito development rates, although the impact varied depending on the local land-use type (Li et al., 2019). Another study emphasized that extreme warming events could significantly affect mosquito life-history traits, such as survival and reproduction, thereby altering the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases (Yitbarek et al., 2023). These findings suggest that extreme weather events, driven by climate change, could lead to shifts in mosquito distribution and potentially increase the risk of disease outbreaks in new regions. In summary, climate change, through its effects on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events, plays a pivotal role in shaping mosquito population dynamics. Understanding these relationships is essential for predicting future changes in mosquito-borne disease risks and developing adaptive public health strategies (Nosrat et al., 2021).

3 Environmental Changes and Mosquito Populations

3.1 Urbanization and its role in mosquito habitat creation

Urbanization significantly impacts mosquito populations by creating diverse habitats that support their proliferation. Urban environments often feature a variety of artificial containers and standing water sources, which are ideal breeding grounds for mosquitoes. For instance, in Miami-Dade County, Florida, urbanization has led to the creation of numerous aquatic habitats such as buckets, bromeliads, and flower pots, which are heavily utilized by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes (Figure 1) (Wilke et al., 2019). Similarly, in Britain, urban areas with artificial container habitats like garden water butts have shown higher mosquito densities compared to rural areas, with species such as Culex pipiens and Anopheles plumbeus thriving in these environments (Wang et al., 2019). Additionally, socioeconomic factors play a role in mosquito distribution within urban areas. Lower-income neighborhoods in the USA tend to have more standing water and garbage, leading to higher mosquito densities and increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases (Yitbarek et al., 2023). These findings underscore the need for targeted mosquito control strategies in urban areas to mitigate the risk of disease transmission.

Wilke et al. (2019) found that the spatial distribution of mosquito larvae and pupae in Miami-Dade County, Florida, displayed a significant clustering of various species within urban areas, as depicted in the figure. This indicates that urban environments provide suitable breeding grounds for multiple mosquito species, with some species like Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti being notably prevalent. The observed distribution patterns suggest that urbanization and associated environmental conditions significantly influence the habitats and breeding sites of these mosquitoes, potentially affecting the dynamics of mosquito-borne disease transmission in these regions. The study underscores the importance of targeted mosquito control efforts in urban areas to mitigate the risk of vector-borne diseases, which are likely concentrated in these densely populated zones.

3.2 Agricultural practices and land use changes

Agricultural practices and land use changes, such as deforestation and urban development, also influence mosquito populations by altering their habitats. In Latin America and the Caribbean, land-use changes have led to varying responses among mosquito species. While some species like Aedes aegypti thrive in urban areas, others show a decline in species richness (Hunt et al., 2017). In the Kapiti region of New Zealand, land use changes from native forests to urban and pasture lands have resulted in higher mosquito densities, particularly in artificial containers and stock drinking troughs. These changes in land use not only create new habitats for mosquitoes but also modify the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of existing habitats, further influencing mosquito population dynamics. For example, increased levels of bacteria and dissolved organic carbon in water bodies are positively correlated with mosquito density. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing effective mosquito control measures in agricultural and urbanized landscapes.

3.3 Pollution and its effects on mosquito populations

Pollution, particularly nutrient pollution and chemical use, has significant effects on mosquito populations (Leisnham et al., 2005). Eutrophication, or nutrient pollution, can enhance mosquito survival and development rates. Experiments have shown that increased levels of eutrophication positively impact mosquito survival and egg-laying behavior, while salinity has a negative effect, especially at higher temperatures (Townroe and Callaghan, 2014). The historical use of chemicals like DDT has also influenced mosquito populations. In North America, the decline in residual environmental DDT concentrations has been correlated with a tenfold increase in mosquito populations over the last five decades (Boerlijst et al., 2022). These findings highlight the complex interactions between pollution and mosquito population dynamics, suggesting that both nutrient pollution and chemical residues can have profound and lasting impacts on mosquito communities. Effective mosquito control strategies must therefore consider the role of pollution in shaping mosquito habitats and populations. By examining the interplay between urbanization, agricultural practices, land use changes, and pollution, we can better understand the factors driving mosquito population dynamics and develop more targeted and effective control measures to reduce the risk of mosquito-borne diseases (Fletcher et al., 2023).

4 Case Study: Climate and Environmental Changes in Mosquito Population Dynamics

4.1 Case study 1: the impact of rising temperatures on Aedes aegypti in Southeast Asia

Rising temperatures due to climate change have significant implications for the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, a primary vector for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Studies have shown that temperature influences various aspects of Aedes aegypti's life cycle, including development rates, survival, and biting frequency. For instance, the development rate of Aedes aegypti larvae and pupae increases with temperature up to a certain threshold, beyond which it declines sharply. This relationship suggests that moderate increases in temperature could enhance mosquito population growth and disease transmission potential in Southeast Asia, where temperatures are generally within the optimal range for Aedes aegypti development (Eisen et al., 2014). Moreover, climate models predict that rising temperatures will expand the geographic range of Aedes aegypti, potentially exposing new populations to vector-borne diseases (Afrane et al., 2012). This expansion is particularly concerning in regions with limited public health infrastructure to manage outbreaks. Therefore, understanding the temperature-dependent dynamics of Aedes aegypti is crucial for predicting and mitigating the impacts of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases in Southeast Asia.

4.2 Case study 2: urbanization and anopheles mosquito populations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Urbanization is a significant driver of changes in mosquito population dynamics, particularly for Anopheles mosquitoes, which are vectors for malaria. Rapid urban growth, unplanned expansion, and increased human population density create favorable conditions for mosquito breeding and disease transmission. A systematic review found a consistent association between urbanization and the distribution and density of Aedes mosquitoes, with higher human population densities correlating with increased levels of arboviral diseases. Although this review focused on Aedes mosquitoes, similar mechanisms likely apply to Anopheles mosquitoes in urban settings. In Sub-Saharan Africa, urbanization can lead to the creation of artificial breeding sites, such as stagnant water in construction areas and poorly managed waste disposal systems, which support the proliferation of Anopheles mosquitoes (Kolimenakis et al., 2021). Additionally, changes in land use, such as deforestation and agricultural expansion, can alter local microclimates, further influencing mosquito populations. These environmental changes can enhance the vectorial capacity of Anopheles mosquitoes, increasing the risk of malaria transmission in urban areas.

4.3 Case study 3: agricultural expansion and culex mosquitoes in South America

Agricultural expansion is another critical factor affecting mosquito population dynamics, particularly for Culex mosquitoes, which are vectors for diseases such as West Nile virus and lymphatic filariasis. In Latin America, land-use changes, including deforestation and the conversion of natural habitats into agricultural land, have been shown to influence mosquito abundance and species composition (Figure 2) (Fletcher et al., 2023). For example, deforestation can create new breeding sites by altering water flow and increasing the availability of standing water, which is essential for mosquito larval development. A comprehensive analysis of mosquito responses to land-use changes in Latin America and the Caribbean revealed that agricultural areas often support higher mosquito abundances compared to natural habitats. This increase in mosquito populations can elevate the risk of disease transmission, particularly in regions undergoing rapid agricultural development. Understanding the impact of agricultural expansion on Culex mosquitoes is crucial for designing effective vector control strategies and mitigating the public health risks associated with these environmental changes. In summary, climate and environmental changes, including rising temperatures, urbanization, and agricultural expansion, significantly impact mosquito population dynamics and disease transmission. These case studies highlight the need for integrated approaches to manage mosquito populations and reduce the burden of vector-borne diseases in affected regions (Ryan et al., 2017).

Fletcher et al. (2023) found that the biodiversity of Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes across Latin America and the Caribbean is influenced by different land-use types, with a notable number of species present in both urban and primary vegetation areas. Their analysis shows a significant concentration of research sites within the Amazon basin, highlighting the region's ecological importance in maintaining mosquito diversity. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the distinct ecological roles that different ecoregions, such as forests and grasslands, play in supporting mosquito biodiversity, particularly within the Amazonian and extra-Amazonian regions. The data suggest that while both Aedes and Anopheles species are widely distributed, the species richness of Anopheles is slightly higher, indicating potential implications for vector control strategies in varying ecological contexts across the region. This underscores the necessity for targeted vector control efforts that consider the specific environmental and land-use characteristics of each area.

5 Implications for Public Health and Mosquito-Borne Diseases

5.1 Increased transmission risk due to climate-induced mosquito proliferation

Climate change has a profound impact on the proliferation of mosquito populations and the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases (Sargent et al., 2022). Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events contribute to the expansion of mosquito habitats and the extension of transmission seasons. For instance, studies have shown that variability in temperature and precipitation is linked to the transmission of diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, and Japanese encephalitis in China (Ryan et al., 2017). Similarly, the global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne viruses, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, are expected to increase due to climate change, with significant population exposures predicted in Europe and high-elevation tropical and subtropical regions. The impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases is not uniform across regions. In southern Europe, climatic and environmental factors such as temperature, precipitation, and population density are key determinants of the distribution and emergence of diseases like dengue, chikungunya, Zika, West Nile fever, and malaria. In coastal zones, rising sea levels and the expansion of brackish water bodies can increase the densities of salinity-tolerant mosquitoes, further exacerbating the transmission of diseases like malaria and dengue. Moreover, urbanization and climate change have complex effects on mosquito population dynamics. In the Pearl River Delta region of China, urbanization has led to a decrease in mosquito populations in newly urbanized areas but an increase in existing urban areas. Changing climate conditions are projected to cause a reduction in the total annual mosquito population, with significant increases during non-peak months. These findings highlight the need for region-specific mosquito control strategies to address the impacts of climate change and urbanization on mosquito populations and disease transmission (Bai et al., 2013).

5.2 Strategies for mitigating the impact of climate and environmental changes

To mitigate the impact of climate and environmental changes on mosquito-borne diseases, several strategies can be implemented (Nosrat et al., 2021). Improving current surveillance and monitoring systems is crucial for timely detection and response to disease outbreaks. Strengthening the adaptive capacity of public health systems and developing multidisciplinary approaches sustained by inter-sectional coordination are also essential. Adaptation strategies should focus on vulnerable communities, particularly in regions where climate change is expected to exacerbate disease transmission. For example, in coastal zones, monitoring disease incidence and preimaginal development of vector mosquitoes in brackish and saline habitats can help in early detection and intervention (Brugueras et al., 2020). Additionally, enhancing public awareness and mobilization can play a significant role in reducing the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. The use of new technologies, such as remote sensing and system dynamics modeling techniques, can improve our understanding and mitigation of mosquito-borne diseases in a changing world. Predictive models can identify areas that are newly suitable for disease transmission and those where people are most at risk, enabling targeted interventions. For instance, early warnings and targeted interventions during periods of abnormal rainfall and temperature can potentially reduce the risk of viral transmission (Ramasamy and Surendran, 2012). In conclusion, addressing the public health implications of climate-induced mosquito proliferation requires a comprehensive approach that includes improved surveillance, adaptive public health systems, community engagement, and the use of advanced technologies. By implementing these strategies, we can mitigate the impact of climate and environmental changes on mosquito-borne diseases and protect vulnerable populations (Wang et al., 2019).

6 Future Research Directions

6.1 Predictive modeling of mosquito population dynamics

Predictive modeling of mosquito population dynamics is crucial for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of vector-borne diseases. Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of integrating various environmental parameters into predictive models. For instance, the use of remotely sensed data, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST), has shown high predictive ability for mosquito populations, allowing for timely control measures. Additionally, combining statistical and mechanistic species distribution models (SDMs) with biotic and environmental variables has improved predictions of mosquito abundance and distribution, particularly in the context of climate and land-use changes (Madzokere et al., 2020). Future research should focus on refining these models by incorporating more diverse environmental factors and improving their spatial and temporal resolution to enhance their predictive accuracy (Kofidou et al., 2021).

6.2 Long-term monitoring of mosquito populations in different climates

Long-term monitoring of mosquito populations across various climatic regions is essential for understanding the effects of climate change on mosquito dynamics. Studies have shown that climate-driven models can accurately predict mosquito population dynamics over multiple years by considering factors such as diapause and seasonal variations. Moreover, incorporating almost periodic functions into mosquito models can account for the loss of synchronicity in population dynamics due to climate change, providing more accurate predictions (Cailly et al., 2012). Future research should aim to establish comprehensive monitoring programs that utilize both ground-based and remote sensing data to track mosquito populations over extended periods. This will help in identifying long-term trends and developing adaptive management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases (Chuang et al., 2012).

6.3 Innovations in mosquito control methods

Innovative mosquito control methods are needed to address the challenges posed by changing environmental conditions. Current research highlights the potential of climate-driven models to assess the effectiveness of various mosquito control strategies, such as larvicidal and adulticidal treatments (Díaz-Marín et al., 2023). Adaptive management approaches that use real-time weather data and forecasts to optimize treatment timing have shown promise in reducing environmental contamination and improving control outcomes. Additionally, the integration of satellite remote sensing data into mosquito population models has enhanced the accuracy of predictions and can potentially improve early warning systems for mosquito-borne diseases. Future research should explore the development and implementation of novel control methods, such as genetic modifications and biological control agents, in conjunction with advanced modeling techniques to achieve sustainable and effective mosquito management. By focusing on these future research directions, we can better understand and manage the complex interactions between climate, environmental changes, and mosquito population dynamics, ultimately reducing the burden of mosquito-borne diseases (Djerdj et al., 2022).

7 Concluding Remarks

This study literature highlights the intricate relationship between climate and environmental changes and mosquito population dynamics. Climate change, particularly temperature fluctuations, significantly impacts mosquito physiology and population dynamics, influencing the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and malaria. Urbanization and land-use changes also play a crucial role, with urban environments often providing ideal conditions for mosquito proliferation. The studies underscore the importance of considering multiple factors, including temperature, precipitation, and urbanization, in predictive models to better understand and manage mosquito populations.

The findings emphasize that effective mosquito control strategies must integrate climate and environmental considerations. Temperature and precipitation are critical drivers of mosquito population dynamics, affecting their breeding, survival, and disease transmission capabilities. Urbanization exacerbates these effects by creating habitats conducive to mosquito breeding, necessitating targeted interventions in urban areas. Predictive models that incorporate climate variables can provide valuable insights for developing adaptive mosquito control strategies, ensuring they remain effective under changing environmental conditions.

Future mosquito population management must adopt a holistic approach that includes climate and environmental factors. Advances in remote sensing and system dynamics modeling offer promising tools for enhancing our understanding of mosquito ecology and improving control measures. Additionally, addressing knowledge gaps in mosquito thermal adaptation and the role of phenotypic plasticity will be crucial for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. As climate change continues to alter environmental conditions, adaptive and region-specific strategies will be essential for mitigating the risk of mosquito-borne diseases and protecting public health.

Acknowledgments

Authors would like to express our gratitude to the two anonymous peer reviewers for their critical assessment and constructive suggestions on our manuscript.

Conflict of Interest Disclosure

The authors affirm that this research was conducted without any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

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